Possible scenario
Partisan Counteroffensive
20% Chance
Republicans and Trump allies contest the implication of Smith's testimony, arguing that donor checks were routine campaign records swept up in an overbroad search. The issue becomes another partisan fight over prosecutorial conduct rather than a clean legal escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Tickers
- DJT+2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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