Possible scenario
Tariffs Are Shelved
50% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the White House and Commerce Department do not extend the copper-tariff framework to silver or platinum-group metals. The prior gold-bar clarification and the JPMorgan metals head's comments reinforce the view that broad precious-metals tariffs would be operationally disruptive and politically low-return.
Initial impacts
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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