Possible scenario
Broad Tariff Surprise
15% Chance
A more disruptive outcome is still possible if trade hawks extend the critical-minerals logic beyond copper. This would contradict the JPMorgan metals head's assessment and revive the January-style tariff-risk premium in silver and PGMs.
Initial impacts
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.6%
- Non-Energy Materials -1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.