Possible scenario
Plots Remain Contained
45% Chance
Israeli security agencies conclude that the Iranian-linked election plots are real but largely disrupted. Netanyahu uses the summit to authorize tighter protection for candidates, polling sites, and Jewish community targets abroad without a wider military response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- ESLT+1.1%
- +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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