Possible scenario
Damage Disclosure Managed
27% Chance
The Pentagon attempts to contain the political fallout by releasing a partial accounting of the Iranian strike's effect on Al Udeid. Officials acknowledge more damage or injuries than previously stated but frame the base as operational and U.S. deterrence as intact.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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