Possible scenario
Russian Countermeasures Emerge
20% Chance
Moscow responds politically or operationally to show that Western shipping sanctions carry costs. The most plausible retaliation is targeted pressure on UK-linked maritime services, insurers or energy traders rather than a full halt in Russian gas exports.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Utilities -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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