Possible scenario
Evasion Keeps Flows
27% Chance
Russia adapts by shifting ownership, flags, insurers and payment routes outside the UK and EU perimeter. This matches the pattern seen in crude oil, where the shadow fleet has kept exports moving despite repeated sanctions rounds.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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