Possible scenario
Security Delay Deepens
25% Chance
A renewed security warning or another attempted missile or drone strike makes a December Riyadh event untenable. This path would be driven less by tennis logistics and more by the risk that visiting athletes, insurers, and broadcasters refuse to commit.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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