Possible scenario
Further Missile Escalation
18% Chance
North Korea follows the submarine-launched cruise missile test with another higher-profile weapons demonstration. This could be an intermediate-range launch, an ICBM-related test, or another strategic systems drill designed to show survivable nuclear capability.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.