Possible scenario
Contained Deterrence Cycle
45% Chance
North Korea's submarine-launched cruise missile tests are treated as another step in its deterrence signaling rather than an immediate trigger for confrontation. Washington, Seoul and Tokyo respond with statements, intelligence sharing and limited exercises, while Beijing and Moscow resist new U.N. action.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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