Possible scenario
Russian Proxy Case
42% Chance
Bulgarian prosecutors build the case around an alleged sabotage network serving Russian interests against Ukraine-linked infrastructure. This is the most likely path given the prior Polish and EU warnings about Russian-backed sabotage and Bulgaria's decision to approve arrest warrants.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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