Possible scenario
Fugitive Remains Abroad
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Fatai Miao remains in China and outside the reach of U.S. law enforcement. The DOJ and FBI proceed with charges, warrants, and evidence disclosures, but Beijing denies involvement and no extradition occurs.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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