Possible scenario
Security Review Reopens
20% Chance
The earlier Chinese investigation into DeepSeek data routing creates a risk that the new licenses are conditional rather than final. Regulators may use the case to demonstrate that export permission can be delayed, narrowed, or suspended if data-handling rules are not satisfied.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.2%
- Business Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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