Possible scenario
Licensing Precedent Expands
25% Chance
The DeepSeek and MiniMax approvals become a template for a broader auto-licensing regime. Beijing signals that compliant Chinese AI firms can export capped models, reducing uncertainty created by the new controls announced on October 16.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Telecommunications +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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