Possible scenario
Grandfathered Export Window
45% Chance
Beijing treats the overseas approvals as valid pre-control licenses, allowing DeepSeek and MiniMax to proceed with selected foreign deployments. This is the most likely path because China can preserve policy credibility while letting favored national AI champions build export revenue under supervision.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Business Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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