Possible scenario
Oversight Fight Escalates
25% Chance
Warren and other Democrats use the confrontational letter to justify a broader oversight push. The fight centers on Treasury's Argentina rescue, communications with large banks, and whether Bessent politicized Treasury market operations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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