Possible scenario
Fiscal Repair Advances
20% Chance
The government uses the market pressure to push forward a credible deficit-reduction package. Even if the fiscal path remains difficult, a concrete budget compromise reduces near-term fears that France will face a self-reinforcing bond selloff.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.1%
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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