Possible scenario
Denial Holds Firm
45% Chance
The Finance Ministry and Agence France Trésor convince investors that there is no deliberate shift toward shorter maturities. France continues to issue across the curve, and the denial reduces immediate concern that officials are losing access to long-dated buyers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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