Possible scenario
Yield Problems Surface
18% Chance
The move from HBM3E to 8-high HBM4 proves technically difficult, particularly in thermal performance, bonding, and advanced packaging. Q2 mass production still begins, but commercial output falls short of customer expectations.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.6%
Tickers
- SKHY-3.8%
- NVDA-1.9%
- MU+1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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