Possible scenario
Growth Scare Repricing
25% Chance
The Treasury move becomes less about AI valuation and more about a broader slowdown signal. Investors price faster Federal Reserve easing while cyclicals and financials begin to underperform alongside technology.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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