Possible scenario
Forced Deleveraging
15% Chance
The selloff exposes crowded positioning in AI and momentum strategies. While not a repeat of the SVB banking shock, the speed of the Treasury move and equity losses could force short-term risk reduction by hedge funds, volatility-control funds and levered ETFs.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.7%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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