Possible scenario
Contained AI Derating
45% Chance
The most likely path is a continued but orderly repricing of AI-linked megacap valuations. Investors remain skeptical of 2026 AI capex returns, but the Treasury rally and lack of a clear credit accident keep the selloff from becoming systemic.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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