Possible scenario
Nuclear Brinkmanship Continues
30% Chance
The IRGC's no-weapons message does not end the nuclear standoff because Iranian hardliners still press for leverage after the U.S.-Israeli strikes. Tehran stays ambiguous, using inspection limits and treaty threats to bargain without formally declaring a weapons program.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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