Possible scenario
Backchannel De-escalation
38% Chance
Iran's IRGC message is treated as a deliberate signal to avoid a wider war after the recent Strait of Hormuz and U.S. strike cycle. Oman, Qatar, and European officials use the opening to push Tehran to remain inside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and keep the Gulf shipping lane operating.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.1%
- Energy -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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