Possible scenario
Energy Shock Deepens
21% Chance
A renewed energy shock remains a material risk because the fiscal hole was created by the Iran war and its oil-market effects. If the Strait of Hormuz disruption worsens, the tax package becomes only one part of a broader inflation, subsidy, and borrowing problem.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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