Possible scenario
Saudi Escalation Broadens
20% Chance
The conflict widens beyond Riyadh Airport, either through new launches against other Saudi transport nodes or a stronger Saudi and U.S.-backed military response. This is less likely than a contained closure, but the recent sequence of strikes raises the tail risk of broader escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.9%
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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