Possible scenario
Closure Extended Again
26% Chance
Saudi aviation authorities extend the closure after additional security reviews, debris removal, or repair work at the terminal. This remains plausible because repeated Houthi strikes would make airlines cautious even without a new successful hit.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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