Possible scenario
Russian Hybrid Escalation
25% Chance
Russia decides France’s covert actions require a visible response and increases hybrid operations against French or allied infrastructure. The escalation remains short of declared war but materially raises the perceived risk of a NATO-Russia incident.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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