Possible scenario
Controlled Shadow Deterrence
45% Chance
France continues limited, deniable conventional retaliations against Russian-linked hybrid operations while avoiding public attribution of specific targets. Moscow registers the costs but does not treat the actions as grounds for open military escalation against France or NATO.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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