Possible scenario
Commercial Launch Delays
20% Chance
The safety controversy forces OpenAI to delay its frontier model roadmap and renegotiate customer expectations. The largest financial impact falls on OpenAI's growth outlook, Microsoft Azure usage assumptions, and rival AI labs competing for enterprise contracts.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Business Services +0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- MSFT-0.8%
- ACN+0.2%
- NVDA+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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