Reform Passes Largely

38% Chance

Burnham keeps the core policy: the state pension triple lock ends from 2030 and savings are redirected into a dedicated social care settlement. The government adds transitional protections to limit pensioner poverty and hold enough Labour MPs together.

Initial impacts

Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Market volatility Down

Secondary impacts

Healthcare +0.9%
Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Finance +0.3%
Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%

Portfolio impact

S&P 500+0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Reform Passes Largely

Initial impacts

Secondary impacts

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Portfolio