Possible scenario
Policy Is Diluted
29% Chance
Backbench pressure, pensioner groups, and opposition attacks force the government to soften the abolition of the triple lock. The final settlement still raises money for social care but delivers smaller fiscal savings than the headline plan.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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