Contained Port Disruption

The most likely outcome is a short operational disruption at Ust-Luga, with Russian exporters and port authorities limiting the damage to inspections, berth delays, and higher security checks. Chicago wheat holds part of its jump because the raid reinforces a risk premium, but physical export flows are not severely impaired.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.