Possible scenario
Selloff grinds on
32% Chance
The yield crossing above US Treasuries becomes a catalyst for more duration reduction by global funds and domestic institutions. The move remains a market repricing rather than a default scare, but France trades increasingly like a higher-risk euro-area sovereign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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