Possible scenario
Fiscal containment holds
38% Chance
The most likely path is a partial political and fiscal containment rather than an immediate sovereign crisis. The Élysée, Bercy and National Assembly moderates find enough room to keep a deficit-reduction path alive, even if markets continue to demand a higher France risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.2%
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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