Possible scenario
Credit risk escalates
18% Chance
A less likely but plausible path is that the bond-market move forces a faster credit-rating or political reckoning. France is not near default, but a further downgrade, failed budget vote or liquidity strain would turn a repricing into a broader euro-area stress event.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -4.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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