Possible scenario
US Countermeasures Expand
25% Chance
Washington is likely to consider a measured response because the headline follows alleged Iranian hacking and assassination plotting against Trump. The response would probably focus on sanctions, indictments, and election-security coordination rather than direct military action.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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