Possible scenario
Domestic Backlash Shapes Race
20% Chance
The IRGC appeal against Trump-aligned lawmakers could backfire politically by letting Republicans frame Democratic support for war-powers limits as weakness toward Tehran. Alternatively, Democrats may use the interference attempt to argue for restraint and stronger election safeguards.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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