Limited Quarantine Declared

China escalates from drills to a temporary maritime and air-control measure, calling it a customs, safety, or military-exclusion operation rather than a blockade. This would be a material geopolitical shock because it directly tests freedom of navigation and Taiwan’s trade lifelines while still leaving room for off-ramps.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.