Possible scenario
AI Price War
35% Chance
Google's 40% lower launch cost forces OpenAI to respond quickly, turning the GPT-6 versus Gemini 4 cycle into a margin-focused price war. Enterprises delay long-term commitments while vendors compete on token pricing, latency, and bundled cloud credits.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.4%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- GOOGL+3.6%
- MSFT-2.0%
- AMZN-1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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