Possible scenario
Limited Guardrails Advance
30% Chance
Trump could incorporate parts of the Democratic request into the U.S.-China dialogue without agreeing to a true pause. This would fit his prior discussion of AI guardrails with China while avoiding a concession that U.S. technology firms should slow development.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Business Services +0.3%
- Telecommunications -0.1%
Tickers
- AMD-0.9%
- NVDA-0.9%
- AMZN+0.2%
- -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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