Possible scenario
Deleveraging Continues
30% Chance
Investors interpret the Goldman warning as confirmation that hedge funds are positioning for more downside rather than as a contrarian buy signal. Selling remains concentrated in technology, cyclicals, and crowded long-short books.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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