Possible scenario
Yields Rebound Hawkishly
27% Chance
The decline in yields proves temporary as investors refocus on the Fed's September projections and the still-elevated level of inflation risk. Hawkish commentary or firm data pushes Treasury yields back toward the recent high.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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