Possible scenario
Oil Relief Extends
38% Chance
Oil remains below $100 as traders judge Saudi supply sales and weaker demand signals sufficient to offset near-term geopolitical risk. Lower energy prices reduce inflation compensation and keep buyers in long-duration Treasuries.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Consumer Services +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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