Possible scenario
Geopolitical Premium Returns
22% Chance
The market again prices Middle East supply risk after fresh Houthi threats or a security incident involving Saudi infrastructure or regional shipping. Oil rebounds above $100 and the inflation-relief narrative weakens.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.