Possible scenario
Truce Frays Early
20% Chance
Domestic politics and enforcement disputes weaken the agreement before it expires. Fentanyl flows, export-control violations, Taiwan-related tensions, or Chinese industrial subsidies give one side grounds to threaten renewed tariffs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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