Possible scenario
Selective Tech Bargain
25% Chance
The truce develops into a limited technology arrangement rather than a comprehensive trade settlement. Washington preserves advanced-node restrictions but allows carefully scoped licenses for mature chips, cloud services, and non-frontier AI hardware in exchange for Chinese concessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.3%
- Industrials +0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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