Possible scenario
Managed Truce Holds
45% Chance
Washington and Beijing preserve the October 2025 tariff rollback and avoid major new restrictions before the January 2027 deadline. Both sides use working groups on fentanyl, agricultural purchases, export licensing, and customs enforcement to prevent disputes from escalating.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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