Possible scenario
Yields Reprice Equities
30% Chance
The next most likely path is that the equity move remains tightly linked to interest-rate pressure after the Fed's September hike and warnings that long yields could approach 6%. In this scenario, the direction of the 10-year Treasury yield determines whether growth stocks stabilize or keep selling off.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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