Possible scenario
Trade Authority Fight
20% Chance
The NY Fed research becomes evidence in the political and legal fight over the tariff program. Courts, Congress, and trade negotiators may respond unevenly, creating uncertainty over whether the tariffs remain, narrow, or are partly overturned.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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